norberthaering (en-GB)

Shadow ECB Council

The ECB Shadow Council was founded in 2002 upon an initiative of Handelsblatt, the German business and financial daily. It is an unofficial panel, independent of the ECB/Eurosystem, and comprising fifteen prominent European economists drawn from academia, financial institutions, consultancies, companies and research institutes. The main purpose is to provide the public with a fuller account of the pros and cons of different policy alternatives than the ECB itself is giving, as the ECB

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tends to focus solely on the arguments in favor of the alternatives it has chosen.

The Shadow Council usually convenes by telephone conference on a quarterly basis. Its discussions are intended to formulate an opinion as to what monetary policy decision its members believe that the ECB's Governing Council ought to undertake, both at its forthcoming meeting and also on a three month horizon. Shadow Council members are encouraged to submit their own economic projections for euro area activity and inflation on a monthly basis, which constitutes the panel's forecast consensus as published each month.

The discussions and recommendations of the Shadow Council differ from surveys of economists concerning the outlook for ECB interest rates because the Shadow Council recommendation expresses the majority view of its' members opinion about what the ECB should do, rather than what they forecast it to do (and hence the "normative" views as expressed by Shadow Council members on what they consider the ECB ought to do can and often do differ from what they might say they expect the ECB to do). This "normative perspective can, however, give an early indication of shifts in the balance of opinion in the expert community.

With a short interruption, Norbert Haering was non-voting chairman of the Shadow ECB council since its inauguration in 2002.

 

Current members:

José Alzola (the Observatory Group), Marco Annunziata (General Electric), Manuel Balmaseda (Cemex), Elga Bartsch (Morgan Stanley), Andrew Bosomworth (Pimco), Sylvain Broyer (Natixis), Julian Callow (Barclays Capital), Jacques Cailloux (Nomura), Eric Chaney (Axa), Janet Henry (HSBC), Merijn Knibbe (Wageningen Universität), Jörg Krämer (Commerzbank), Erik Nielsen (Unicredit), Jean-Michel Six (Standard & Poor’s), Richard Werner (Southampton Universität)

 

Past members (selection)

Sushil Wadhwani (vormals Bank von England, Wadhwani Asset Management), Jürgen von Hagen (Universität Bonn), Marko Skreb (ehem. Gouverneur der kroatischen Zentralbank), Paul De Grauwe (Universität Leuven), Francesco Giavazzi (Bocconi Universität), Michael Heise (Allianz), Willem Buiter (vormals Bank von England, Citigroup),  Daniel Gros (CEPS), Thomas Mayer (Deutsche Bank), Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute), Stephen King (HSBC), Charles Wyplosz (Genfer Hochschulinstitut), Gustav Horn (IMK)

 

Minutes of the meeting on 7 January 2014

Shadow ECB Council is sceptical on size and structure of the ECB’s package

At the meeting of the Shadow ECB Council on 26 September, 2014, there was a strong consensus that strong disinflation and weak economic prospects warranted ECB action. At the same time, there was near consensus that the package of measures announced by the central bank in early September would not be sufficient and there was disagreement on their appropriateness. Many members suggested large scale

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Shadow ECB Council calls ECB’s package step in the right direction

At the meeting of the Shadow ECB Council on 26 June, 2014, there was a strong consensus that the measures decided by the ECB Governing Council in early June against the credit crunch and below target inflation were going in the right direction, but only modestly effective and insufficient. Almost all members believed that additional measure were needed now or in the near future. The Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) were almost unanimously considered the most important part of

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Shadow ECB Council criticises neglect of deflation danger

The Shadow ECB Council held a conference-call on 27 March, 2014 to discuss whether and which monetary policy measure would be appropriate to deal with the continued inflation undershoot and to counter the threat of deflation.  There was broad consensus that the low and declining inflation rate in the euro area as a whole and negative rates in some individual countries pose a serious problem; more serious than ECB representatives

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